Week 8 "Go Off/Fall Off"
'Go Off/Fall Off' is not meant to be a literal start/sit list. GoFo is an aggregate of ESPN rankings, projections, and personal insight from Adamantly Particular. A player on the Go Off list is likely to outperform expectations for the week. Conversely, a Fall Off player will underproduce or disappoint. All projections are based off of ESPN Standard Scoring.
Go Off
QB
Peyton Manning
ESPN Rank: 3
Projected Points: 26
Rationale: Manning is the best QB option going into this weekend. Manning has been consistant all season, only posting one game of less than 20 points, and he's facing a Saints' defense that just allowed over 400 yards and 4 scores to Josh Freeman. In addition, Manning is coming off of a bye and a 35-point comeback. With everyone buying in to 'The Manning Way' even more, the extra week to percolate, and the matchup, Manning is a no brainer elite QB.
Tom Brady
ESPN Rank: 5
Projected Points: 16
Rationale: Brady is still the best QB in football. Brady looked fed up with the way things are going after last week's game against the Jets, and no team plays better with a chip on its shoulder than the Patriots. In 2009, Brady's last trip across the pond, he had over 300 yards and 3 TD's. The Rams allowed 25 fantasy points to Aaron Rodgers last week. Look for Brady to put up similar numbers and assert his dominance on the (inter)national stage.
Ryan Tannehill
ESPN Rank: 23
Projected Points: 9
Rationale: I've been low on Tannehill for a long, long while. But it's the Jets...
RB
Adrian Peterson
ESPN Rank: 1
Projected Points: 23
Rationale: Adrian Peterson might be the most overrated back in football. And he is ranked number one this week. 'So, how can he overachieve,' you ask? Simple, Thursday Night Football is tailor-made for teams who can win ugly. Last week, getting only 56 passing yards from Ponder, the Vikes proved they can win ugly. Like Cee Lo Green-montage ugly. Even though Tampa has the 3rd rank run D, that number is skewed by the lack of great RBs they have faced thus far. AD has been trending upward, in the last three games he went from 12 to 19 to 23 points. The Vikes will feed him as often as his moniker suggests to keep Ponder in favorable situations and to keep Freeman and Co. off of the field.
Willis McGahee
ESPN Rank: 7
Projected Points: 18
Rationale: New Orleans has allowed 8 TDs in their first 6 games. This will be a shootout, and McGahee has shown that he can catch the ball out of the backfield, and that receptions and YAC are much easier to get with dimes from Manning than from worm-burning ducks from He-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named.
Jamaal Charles
ESPN Rank: 3
Projected Points: 18
Rationale: J-Mail is literally (Chris Traeger voice!) the only weapon (the fact that Quinn is under center takes away from an already-unhappy Bowe's value) in this offense. Charles is coming off of a bye, giving him time to rest up for the heavy workload he will shoulder (er, knee?) this week. Oakland is mediocre against RBs, allowing 25.8 PPG to opposing backs.
Alfred Morris
ESPN Rank: 5
Projected Points: 16
Rationale: The Steelers Defense is a false idol. Ranked 20th overall, with holes all over the place, they'll have their hands more than full trying to slow down RG3. On the flip side, the depleted receiving core, injury to Fred Davis, and the (unwarranted) luster of the Steelers will cause the 'Skins to play a bit more conservatively, and ground and pound. The only home-run I plan on watching this week is from a Morris TD celebration (World Series what?!).
Additional player that I feel too dirty to give his own, similarly-formatted section: Chris Johnson. CJDK (Don't Know) has been an enigma inside of a question mark, but at least he's trending upward. In 3 out of his last four contests, he's gone for 141, 91, and 195 and is facing the Colts this week.
WR
Brandon Marshall
ESPN Rank: 3
Projected Points: 20
Rationale: I've been high on Marshall since he came to Chi-city, and that doesn't change this week against a Carolina team that is begging for help on both sides of the ball, and that's not hyperbole (I'M LOOKING AT YOU, SUGGESTION-BOX CAM). Marshall gets force fed the ball, and that will continue.
Reggie Wayne
ESPN Rank: 7
Projected Points: 15
Rationale: Wayne ranks number 1 in YPG, averaging 111. Over the last 4 weeks, Wayne is averaging 14.7 targets per game. The Colts face the Titans, ranked 20th against WR. Tennessee has allowed multiple touchdowns against Detroit and Buffalo, 2 other teams who rely heavily on 1 receiver.
Randall Cobb
ESPN Rank: 18
Projected Points: 12
Rationale: Jennings is out, Jones is deviating back to the mean, and Finley was limited in practice. Rodgers has finally returned to the QB elite, and he loves Cobb more than insurance.
Demaryius Thomas
ESPN Rank: 1
Projected Points: 17
Rationale: Thomas, an athletic freak of nature, got to experience his first bye week with a capable QB. With the emergence of Decker as a dangerous number two, an already thin Saints' D will be stretched even thinner. Slowing down Thomas in this game will be more difficult than it is to spell his name without looking.
Stay tuned for the 'Fall Off' list!
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